Market Review
According to ETO Markets monitoring, on April 14 (Tuesday), WTI crude plunged sharply and closed at USD 91.20 per barrel, down 7.87% on the day. The decline was driven by rising expectations that the US, Iran, and Israel may resume negotiations, easing geopolitical tensions.
On April 15 (Wednesday) during Asian trading, losses extended further. WTI briefly fell to USD 88.37 per barrel, down around 4% intraday. Market sentiment weakened noticeably, with price levels continuing to drift lower.
Global Headlines
Trump Signals War End Talks
Trump stated that the US war with Iran is “over” and suggested talks could resume in Pakistan within two days. Risk sentiment improved, equity futures rose, while oil prices came under pressure.
Pakistan Pushes Extended Ceasefire Plan
Pakistan is working to extend the temporary ceasefire to 45 days and resume technical discussions. Mediation efforts aim to stabilize conditions and create room for further negotiations.
Vance Sees Cautious Progress Talks
US Vice President Vance expressed cautious optimism on progress but acknowledged deep mistrust. Discussions on a second round of talks are ongoing, with uncertainty still high.
Warsh Nomination Hearing Draws Attention
The US Senate will hold hearings on Kevin Warsh’s nomination as FED Chair. His financial disclosures show assets exceeding USD 100 million. Markets are watching implications for policy direction.
White House Signals Oil Supply Boost
The White House said 103 empty tankers are heading to US ports to load crude, including 54 VLCCs. Strong US output is helping ease supply concerns.
Rate Outlook Stable FED On Hold
CME data shows a 98.4% probability that the FED will hold rates unchanged in April. Rate cut expectations remain limited, reflecting stable policy outlook despite ongoing risks.
ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)
WTI remains under pressure, with rebounds capped near 93.70. The short-term structure is weak. If prices fail to break above this key resistance, downside risks may extend toward 87.00 or even 84.40, maintaining a bearish trajectory. If WTI reclaims 93.70, the decline may ease. Upside could test 95.50 and potentially extend to 97.70, though momentum needs confirmation.
RSI remains weak, with no clear signs of recovery. Bearish momentum still dominates. The market is repricing around negotiation expectations and supply recovery, leading to elevated volatility and a softer price trend.
Disclaimer
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