Article by: ETO Markets
Gold prices are experiencing volatility as markets anticipate critical US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions, contributing to a cautiously bullish outlook for XAUUSD. Bearish pressures stem from mixed US economic indicators, such as the stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI (53.5 vs. forecast 52.5), which may reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially strengthening the dollar and capping gold’s upside. Conversely, bullish factors provide significant support, including persistent geopolitical tensions—such as delayed Ukraine peace talks and potential reductions in US aid to Ukraine—as well as trade policy uncertainties following President Trump’s recent tariff announcements on Canada, Mexico, and Europe. These developments reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm employment data on March 8, 2025, and Fed Chair Powell’s statements, which could clarify the trajectory of monetary policy and influence gold prices.
From a technical perspective, gold is consolidating near $… after rebounding from a low of about $… on February 28, 2025, following a peak near $… on February 24. The recovery is marked by higher closes since the late February dip and is supported by a robust long-term uptrend, as the 50-day and 100-day SMAs remain well below current prices. However, short-term indicators show caution, with the MACD’s main line still below its signal line as of March 6, suggesting bearish pressure that could challenge the recovery. Immediate resistance is seen at around $…—with a break potentially targeting the historical high near $…—while support is established at $…, with additional levels at $…-$…, and momentum indicators like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator hint at mild bullish potential if key catalysts emerge.
