Article by: ETO Markets

Gold prices (XAU/USD) rose above $2,400 this week on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut. U.S. President Joe Biden's exit from the race led to selling pressure on the dollar, while Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as a leading Democratic candidate and former President Donald Trump remained the betting market favorite, which weakened the dollar and boosted gold's appeal. In addition, the Fed's September rate cut is fully priced in, which puts pressure on the dollar and increases the appeal of non-yielding gold. Geopolitical risks such as the Sino-US trade war, the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East have further increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting the rise in gold prices.

From a technical point of view, gold prices saw a corrective decline following last week's all-time high, but temporarily stopped falling ahead of support levels between $… and $…. This area, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of the June-July rally and the 100-cycle SMA on the 4-hour chart, is a key pivot for short-term traders to watch. If the gold price effectively breaks below this area, it may further explore the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is the $…-… region, and may even fall to the $…-… region. On the upside, gold needs to break out of the $…-… region to push up to the $…-… region and eventually challenge the all-time high of $…. The volatility indicator on the daily chart remains in positive territory and bulls could retest the all-time high and break the psychological $… level. However, the durability of gold above $… will be an important indicator to watch market sentiment.