Article by: ETO Markets

The final trading day before an extended holiday weekend is frequently erratic, particularly when month-end activities and significant economic announcements like the PCE report on Good Friday are combined. Consider the S&P 500. Few anticipated a rally into the weekend, yet to the amazement of many traders, the index hit yet another record high on Wednesday. The market has surged by 10% as a result of this gain, capping an excellent quarter. Apple and Tesla, two underperforming Mag 7 equities, saw rises as well. But profit-taking caused Nvidia, the industry leader in artificial intelligence, to drop. However, the S&P 500's resilience indicates that market confidence is still strong in spite of possible inflationary pressures.

Finding a needle in a haystack is how one might describe the present market conditions, especially with a long Easter weekend on the horizon, month-end dynamics, and big data releases coming up. It could be difficult to pinpoint a single catalyst that is causing changes in the market because there are so many variables at work.

While US market index futures are rising between 0.3% and 0.4%, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is trading slightly lower. The USD may struggle to find demand as a safe haven if the main US market indices open higher and gain bullish momentum.

Strong support is aligned with the 200-DMA at ... Should the pair drop below it and begin to use it as resistance, a long slide toward …, the start of the most recent uptrend, and … which is the psychological level, or static level might be observed.

First resistance on the upswing is at … which is near 100-DMA, followed by … and … where the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the most recent uptrend is. 

Despite the Bank of Japan ceasing to maintain negative interest rates, the Japanese yen has seen considerable pressure in recent trading sessions. Given that there is no proof of a wage growth spiral, investors seem to be less optimistic about the BoJ's decision to normalize policy. Aside from that, investors anticipate a fairly gradual shift in the BoJ's policy normalization.

Any further increase in price could run into strong opposition and be capped at about ... This handle should serve as a crucial turning point that, if it is convincingly broken, will be interpreted by bullish traders as a new catalyst. Oscillators on the daily chart are remaining in the positive zone, which suggests that the USD/JPY pair may continue its established uptrend that began in January 2023 and move even higher toward the round number of ...

Conversely, it appears that the overnight swing low, which was located at about …, is now guarding against further declines. Any additional decrease is more likely to draw in new buyers and stay contained close to the … support zone.