ETO Markets Weekly Recap (24 Nov 2025): U.S. Stocks Rise as December Rate-Cut Odds Hit 70% Amid Weak Consumer Confidence and Slowing PMI. US equity markets advanced as investors reacted positively to comments from Federal Reserve President John Williams, who suggested that monetary policy may soon shift toward a more neutral stance. This helped push the implied probability of a December rate cut back up to nearly 70%, lifting market sentiment despite continued signs of strain across the broader economy.

U.S. equity markets managed to post modest gains overnight as investor sentiment improved on signs that Congress is making progress toward resolving the government shutdown. Despite this, the prolonged political impasse continues to cast a shadow over economic confidence. The shutdown has now reached Day 36, the longest in U.S. history, with an estimated economic cost of USD 14 billion in lost productivity, delayed spending, and stalled federal operations. The impact is beginning to filter through to household sentiment and labour markets. 

Last week was defined in terms of economic news and helped solidify our position going into 2025. Of note was Germain’s preliminary inflation data. YoY data showed a third consecutive rise of 2.6%. The Euro Area also …

Welcome to 2025!  As 2025 kicks off, several financial themes are poised to influence global markets and our investment strategies. We will dive deeper into these and provide ideas on where 2025 will take them. One theme…

As we head into the holiday period, the market focuses entirely on the US. Last week was a big week for news that we can build on to find a good focus for 2025. Minutes from the FOMC suggest that Governors remain …