Market Review 

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on April 27 (Monday), spot gold edged down 0.6% to close near USD 4,681.67 per ounce. US June gold futures also fell 1% to around USD 4,693.70 per ounce. 

On April 28 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold moved in a narrow range around USD 4,670 per ounce. The market remains in a short-term consolidation phase. 

Global Headlines 

• Iran Strait Terms Rejected Again 
  Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US has requested talks and Tehran is now considering that option. US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under strict conditions is unacceptable to both the US and other parties. The White House also said Trump’s national security team has discussed the proposal, but Trump himself is not satisfied with it. 

• Merz Sees No Exit Strategy 
  German Chancellor Merz said the US lacks a clear strategic exit plan for the Iran conflict. He said it is still unclear how Washington intends to leave the war, and described Iran as highly skilled in negotiations. He also noted that the US has faced similar problems in both Afghanistan and Iraq. 

• Russia May Relay Iran Signals 
  Kremlin aide Ushakov said Russia will assess the message delivered by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi after consultations with both Iran and signals received from the US and Israel. He added that Moscow may pass relevant views from the Russia-Iran talks to the US and other close partners. 

• White House Dinner Shooter Charged 
  The suspect in the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner made his first court appearance in Washington. He has been formally charged with attempted assassination of President Trump, interstate transport of weapons, and using a firearm in a violent crime. A hearing is scheduled for April 30. 

• Dalio Warns Against Stagflation Cuts 
  Ray Dalio said the US is already in a stagflation environment, with inflation remaining the more urgent issue. He also said Warsh is now clearly positioned to replace POWELL in mid-May. In his view, any rate cut under such conditions could damage confidence in the FED at a critical moment. 

• BOJ Hike Odds Remain Low 
  The BOJ will announce its rate decision today, and Governor UEDA is scheduled to hold a press conference at 14:30. Interest-rate derivatives show the market is pricing only a 7% chance of a rate hike this time. BCA Research also estimates that carry-trade positions have already been rebuilt to three times the level seen after the unwind in August 2024. 

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold) 

Spot gold remains in a mildly bullish consolidation structure, with 4,660 acting as the key support level. If prices stay above 4,660, rebound momentum may extend further, with upside levels to watch at 4,710 and 4,730. 

If gold falls below 4,660, the market may shift back into a corrective phase. In that case, support is seen at 4,635 and 4,615. Overall, price action is still in a recovery phase within a broader range. 

RSI remains constructive, suggesting that short-term momentum has improved and further upside is still possible. With the market reacting to US-Iran negotiation developments, the Strait of Hormuz situation, and major central bank policy expectations, direction remains fluid and subject to repeated retesting. 

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