Market Review
According to ETO Markets monitoring, on Feb 3 (Tuesday) spot gold staged a powerful rebound, surging over 6% in a single session, marking its largest one-day gain since November 2008. The rebound followed two consecutive sessions of sharp sell-offs after gold hit a record high of USD 5,596.33/oz, before plunging to an intraday low of USD 4,401.24/oz, triggering extreme market volatility.
As dip-buying accelerated, gold rapidly retraced losses and reclaimed key levels, rebounding to around USD 4,945/oz at the session high. During Asian trading on Feb 4 (Wednesday), spot gold moved into consolidation, hovering near USD 4,942/oz, as short-term price action stabilized.
Global Headlines
U.S. and Iran Agree Oman Talks
The Trump administration agreed to hold talks with Iran in Oman on Feb 6, easing some near-term geopolitical tail risks after weeks of heightened Middle East tensions. Markets remain cautious on the potential outcome.
March Fed Hold Priced In
Interest-rate pricing shows a 91.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in March, with only an 8.9% chance of a 25bp cut. Expectations for April and June easing have edged higher, keeping rate-path uncertainty supportive for gold hedging demand.
U.S. Pushes Critical Minerals Deals
The U.S. Interior Secretary said Washington plans to announce multiple bilateral agreements covering critical minerals and rare earths, potentially including tariff exemptions and price floors. The move reinforces long-term inflation and resource-security expectations.
Government Shutdown Ends After Funding Bill
President Trump signed a government funding bill, ending the partial federal shutdown. The legislation funds most agencies through September, easing near-term policy uncertainty.
Fed Governance Roles Adjusted
Fed Governor Milan stepped down as Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers while retaining his role at the Federal Reserve. The shift highlights ongoing adjustments in the boundary between the White House and the Fed, with implications for perceived policy independence.
ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)
Following extreme volatility, gold has undergone a rapid rebalancing of sentiment and liquidity. In the near term, USD 4,880 has emerged as a key pivot level. If prices hold above this zone, gold remains in a recovery-driven upward channel, with scope to test USD 5,110 and USD 5,240. A decisive break below support would reopen risks of a technical pullback, with USD 4,745 and lower levels in focus.
RSI has turned back toward strength, suggesting room for further upside, though price swings are likely to remain sharp. Overall, amid liquidity expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and resource-security themes, gold’s medium-term pricing logic remains intact, while near-term consolidation reflects ongoing repricing at elevated levels. Investors are advised to carefully manage trading pace and risk exposure.
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