Article by: ETO Markets
Over the past days, oil prices have corrected slightly higher amid a backdrop of mixed fundamental signals and evolving technical cues. On the supply side, data from the US oil market indicate a relatively loose environment—rising inventories reported by both API and EIA and a halt in the growth of active rigs suggest that demand has not kept pace with production, which could ultimately weigh on prices if these trends intensify. At the same time, the US-led trade wars are expected to clip global oil demand, as highlighted in the IEA’s March 2025 report, with concerns that even Chinese demand may have plateaued, thereby dampening broader market sentiment. Counterbalancing these bearish factors, OPEC+ maintains a steady demand outlook, although increased production from Kazakhstan and the likely unwinding of production cuts may ease supply constraints and add downward pressure. Technically, the WTI daily chart reflects this cautious balance: the recent upward correction signals a modest recovery, but traders should remain alert to key support levels that, if breached, could prompt further technical selling, whereas sustained strength above pivotal resistance areas might pave the way for a renewed uptrend.
Gold prices retreated from their recent all-time peak during the Asian session as fresh sellers and profit-taking actions amid a historic run weighed on sentiment, while the US Dollar strengthened for a third straight day and neared its weekly high, exerting further pressure on the commodity. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve might resume its rate-cutting cycle—anticipating two 25 basis points cuts by year’s end amid a downgraded growth outlook and concerns over aggressive trade policies—could help stabilize the gold price despite the strengthening dollar. Adding to market volatility, geopolitical tensions remain high as threats of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump loom, conflicts in the Middle East intensify with Israel resuming heavy strikes on Gaza, and ongoing escalations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to underscore global economic uncertainty, ultimately reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
From a technical perspective, the recent two-day corrective slide appears to be largely driven by profit-taking amid overbought conditions on the daily chart, without sufficient follow-through selling to confirm a near-term top. This suggests that a dip below the $…-… area might offer a buying opportunity, with the $… psychological mark acting as a temporary floor. Should this level hold, any break below it could trigger technical selling, potentially pushing the price first to the $…-… intermediate support, then further down towards the $… area, and possibly extending the decline to the $… support before reaching the $… mark and testing last week’s swing low around $…. Conversely, the $…-… zone, representing the recent all-time peak, remains a significant hurdle, and sustained strength beyond this level would likely prompt bullish traders to extend the well-established three-month uptrend.
WTI oil has maintained its momentum for a third consecutive session, trading around $68.40 per barrel during Asian hours on Friday and on track for its second weekly increase, largely due to fresh US sanctions on Iran. The US Treasury’s new sanctions target a Chinese refiner and other entities linked to supplying Iranian crude to China, with analysts anticipating a reduction of about 1 million barrels per day in Iranian exports. This follows reports that Iran’s crude exports were estimated at over 1.8 million barrels per day in February, though actual figures might be lower due to sanctions. Additionally, oil prices may receive further support from an OPEC+ plan that requires seven member nations to cut production by between 189,000 and 435,000 barrels per day each month until June 2026, even as plans for increased production next year could counterbalance some of these cuts. Earlier, OPEC+ also announced that eight of its members would boost output by 138,000 barrels per day monthly starting in April, partially reversing the cumulative production cuts implemented since 2022. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel’s ground operations in Gaza, US airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, and allegations of a ceasefire violation by Ukraine on a Russian oil depot, continue to underpin oil prices with additional risk premiums.
From a technical perspective, WTI oil has recently turned the … level into support after trading just below it for several days, although the recent upward correction—likely influenced by the lower Bollinger Band—has not changed the overall bearish outlook. As long as the downward trendline established since January 16 remains intact, continued bearish control could see the price break below … and target the … support level. Conversely, if bullish momentum takes over and the trendline is broken, the price might extend its correction, first targeting the … resistance and potentially reaching as high as ….
