Article by: ETO Markets
Following US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, the agony on the Greenback grew. Powell stated that if they are more certain that there is additional proof of declining inflation, interest rate reductions are still likely to occur in the upcoming months.
The market had anticipated that the Fed will change course on policy in the second half of this year, as Chair Powell confirmed. As of right now, markets are pricing in a 70% possibility—a marginal increase from the 63% likelihood observed only the day before—that the Fed may start lowering rates in June.
China's trade balance for February was CNY 890.8 billion, a significant increase above the previous figure of CNY 540.90 billion. In the reported month, exports increased significantly by 7.1% YoY, compared to 2.3% in January and 1.9% predicted. In February, the nation's imports increased 3.5% YoY, up from 0.2% in January.
The latest Australian foreign trade statistics was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. It shows that the country's trade surplus increased to 11,027 million MoM in February, compared to 11,500 million projected and 10,743 million in the previous reading. Further information reveals that Australia's monthly Goods and Services Exports for December were 1.6% of the previous 1.8% statistics. Imports of goods and services up 1.3% in February MoM compared to a 4.8% increase in January.
Amidst fresh speculations on a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, follow-through buying is drawn to the Japanese Yen. The USD bulls are on the defensive because to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's plan of rate cuts. The market's attention is still fixed on Friday's release of the highly anticipated US NFP report.
Powell's remarks and the loosening US labour market circumstances contributed to the gold price reaching a new all-time high, but it was only a grind higher. It remains to be seen, though, if the price of gold moves closer to $2,200. Following the recent surge, investors may decide to take profits ahead of Friday's crucial US NFP data release, which could validate the timing of the Fed rate cut as early as June.
The low of the previous day, $… , might provide immediate support for the gold price. The junction of Tuesday's low and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level is $… , where the next negative cap is expected to occur.
A prolonged pause below that level would encourage gold sellers to tighten their grip in the direction of the $… barrier. The 20- and the 50-SMA Bull Cross are still in action, therefore any decline in the price of gold could be viewed as a favourable opportunity to purchase a dip.
For gold prices to continue rising toward the $… mark, they must consistently break through the current record high of $ ... Prior to that, bearish commitments could be tested by the $… resistance.
The EIA's Crude Oil Stocks Change contributed 1.367 million barrels to the weekly total, falling short of the 2.116 million expected and reversing the previous week's nearly 4.2 million barrel excess. Reducing barrel counts have increased expectations that US refining will start to chip away at the supply of crude oil that is filling the pipeline, but only enough to maintain WTI positive by roughly 1% following its Wednesday peak of 3.25% bottom-to-top for the day.
After rising 3.5 % from the day's low near $… , WTI saw a clear bearish rejection from the $… barrier on Wednesday and fell back into $... The 200-HMA is close to $… , so sellers have the intraday technical floor. Despite this, US Crude Oil is still up for the day, up over a full percent from the day's beginning prices around $...
Daily candlesticks are still stuck around the 200-DMA, which is currently at $... Additionally, the price of a barrel is approaching a significant resistance level at $...
